US election: Paths to victory for Donald Trump and Joe Biden

The path to the White House is far rockier for Donald Trump this time around. In 2016, just after midnight, Mr Trump stood in front of supporters and claimed victory.
On that occasion, he was right to do so. The votes were in and, despite what the polls had predicted, the businessman-turned-politician had cruised to a win before bedtime.
After 2am on Wednesday US time, Mr Trump again claimed victory.
“We were getting ready to win this election,” he told supporters from the East Room. “Frankly, we did win this election.”
But claims he made about states still to be declared were clearly premature. Many of them will depend on the record number of postal votes sent in before election day — a process that experts say will heavily favour the Democratic nominee.
So what do both men need to claim victory (for real this time)? It’s a bit complicated but stay with me.
Mr Trump won in Indiana, Arkansas, Kentucky, West Virginia, South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, Oklahoma Nebraska, Louisiana, Wyoming, South Dakota, North Dakota, Missouri, Utah, Wyoming, Idaho, Ohio, Texas, Iowa and Tennessee.
Joe Biden won in Vermont, Massachusetts, Maryland, Delaware, Illinois, Connecticut, New Mexico, New York, New Jersey, New Hampshire, Maine, Colorado, the District of Columbia, Washington, Oregon, Virginia, Hawaii, Minnesota, Arizona and California.
It leaves Mr Biden on 238 Electoral College votes out of 270 required to win the White House, according to a Fox News count. Mr Trump trails narrowly with 213 Electoral College votes.
States still in play include Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada and Alaska.
If Mr Biden wins Pennsylvania and Michigan, it’s over. But to do so, he will need to rely heavily on mail-in votes because Mr Trump leads Pennsylvania by more than 700,000 votes.
If Mr Biden doesn’t win Pennsylvania, he can still win the White House by winning Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada.
Mr Trump can win a second term but he needs to win two of either Pennsylvania and Wisconsin or Pennsylvania and Michigan.
The road home for Trump would likely also need to include wins in North Carolina and Georgia, where he leads by only a narrow margin.