Thanks to the state’s coronavirus disaster, things are once again very uncertain prompting the need for hasty recalculations.

The Victorian government failed spectacularly on the first two counts and the unfolding catastrophe emanating from that state has thwarted the July ambitions.
So much so that the federal government is making last minute changes to the numbers to be unveiled in Thursday’s economic statement to reflect the setback. The numbers, we are told, will be “scary”.
The changes announced on Tuesday to JobKeeper and JobSeeker also rely on a fair degree of hope.
The Treasury review of JobKeeper and JobSeeker conducted in June did not envisage a setback the scale of which we are now facing.
Before the review, the government was making noises about winding up JobKeeper when it expired on September 27 and replacing it with support schemes designed specifically for those sectors subject to ongoing enforced restrictions, such as international tourism and events.
Treasury advised this was impractical because it was impossible to define sectoral boundaries.
“A better approach to sectoral targeting would be to maintain JobKeeper but reassess eligibility in October based on actual decline in turnover,” it said.
“This would target the most affected businesses and would reduce the proportion of the economy at risk of the adverse incentives of JobKeeper.”
Nonetheless, the language of the review and its recommendations is underpinned by the optimism that pervaded the national cabinet in May when it agreed to reopen the country.
JobKeeper would become an adverse incentive to seek work was the recovery progressed, it said.
As Frydenberg said on Tuesday, there had to be a hasty factoring in of Victoria when it came to the JobKeeper and JobSeeker redesign.
“What Treasury has assumed … is that that lockdown goes for six weeks in Victoria and then restrictions [begin to lift] out to December,” he said.
“Treasury have very much tried in this very difficult environment to take into account what is happening in Victoria but also taking into account national cabinet’s decisions.”
The decision to extend but scale back JobKeeper forecasts that by the March quarter next year, 1 million workers will still be receiving the subsidy, a drop of 2.5 million.
Of these 2.5 million, about one in 10, or 245,000, are expected to hit the dole queue because their businesses are no longer viable. The remainder, presumably, won’t qualify for the subsidy because business has recovered.
That’s the assumption but thanks to Victoria, things are again very uncertain.
If the Victoria-inspired disaster worsens, it will be risky to be paring back subsidies and welfare.
The country is on a knife edge and business is toey. The Chamber of Commerce and Industry said on Tuesday the national cabinet should to come up with a new road map for recovery.
As for being able to fly from Melbourne to Cairns by July, on Tuesday the Treasurer, a Melburnian, strode the corridors of Parliament, forced to wear a face mask and only after being given special permission to travel.