Republicans see a path running through Michigan and Minnesota to …

Republicans see a path running through Michigan and Minnesota to hold a slim Senate majority in the next Congress.
The odds are stacked against them and many see the GOP as the underdog in the fight for control of the Senate.
But Republicans think that even if as many as four GOP incumbents go down in defeat next week, they can keep their majority by ousting Sen. Gary PetersGary Charles PetersBiden leads Trump by 7 in Michigan: pollThe Hill’s Campaign Report: 2020 spending wars | Biden looks to clean up oil comments | Debate ratings are in Jaime Harrison raises million in two weeks for South Carolina Senate bidMORE (D) in Michigan or Sen. Tina SmithTina Flint SmithThe Hill’s Morning Report – Sponsored by Facebook – Justice Barrett joins court; one week until Election DayThe Hill’s Campaign Report: Trump, Biden prepare to make final pitches to voters Minnesota Senate candidate Jason Lewis undergoes ‘successful’ hernia surgeryMORE (D) in Minnesota.
In their dismissiveness of the prevailing sentiment that Democrats are favored to win control of the Senate, Republicans also point to poll numbers for vulnerable GOP incumbents in red-leaning states that are starting to solidify.
Still, Senate Republicans acknowledge they have a tough map to defend, with 23 seats up for reelection compared to only 12 for Democrats.
GOP senators, who control 53 seats, are confident of vanquishing Sen. Doug Jones (D) in Alabama, meaning Democrats would need to win at least four Republican-held seats and the White House to make Sen. Charles SchumerChuck SchumerHouse Democrats introduce bill to invest 0 billion in STEM research and educationGraham dismisses criticism from Fox Business’s Lou DobbsLewandowski: Trump ‘wants to see every Republican reelected regardless of … if they break with the president’MORE (D-N.Y.) the new majority leader.
I think its even money, its 50-50. There are some huge fights going on, and huge amounts of money being spent and races are competitive but our candidates are doing a good job. Theyre holding their own, Senate Majority Whip John ThuneJohn Randolph ThuneEnsuring more Americans have access to 5G technologyPence won’t preside over Barrett’s final confirmation voteGaffes put spotlight on Meadows at tough time for TrumpMORE (R-S.D.) said Wednesday. 
Political handicappers right now are giving Democrats the edge.
FiveThiryEight.com, a prominent prognosticator, says Democrats are favored to win the Senate and have an 80 percent chance of holding between 48 and 55 seats in the next Congress. 
But GOP senators and party strategists say there has been too much focus on potential Democratic pickups in traditionally Republican states such as Georgia, Montana, and Texas and not enough on potential upsets in Michigan and Minnesota, where Peters and Smith hold small leads over their challengers.
Republicans are hopeful that Michigan candidate John James, who is Black, can pick up enough African American voters in urban areas and perform well in rural areas to unseat Peters.
I think Michigans an opportunity that people are at least somewhat aware of. John James has done a great job of raising money. And I think if he can turn out voters in the city, hell do well out-state. Hes got a good shot, Thune said. 
A New York Times/Siena College poll published Wednesday showed Peters ahead of James by 8 percentage points, the same margin as Democratic nominee Joe BidenJoe BidenHillary Clinton responds to Chrissy Teigen tweet: ‘I love you back’Supreme Court rejects Trump effort to shorten North Carolina mail-ballot deadlineOvernight Defense: Trump campaign’s use of military helicopter raises ethics concerns | Air Force jets intercept aircraft over Trump rally | Senators introduce bill to expand visa screeningsMOREs lead over President TrumpDonald John TrumpHillary Clinton responds to Chrissy Teigen tweet: ‘I love you back’Police called after Florida moms refuse to wear face masks at school board meeting about mask policySupreme Court rejects Trump effort to shorten North Carolina mail-ballot deadlineMORE in the state.
Other polls have shown a tighter Senate race. 
An ABC News/Washington Post poll conducted Oct. 20-25 and a Reuters/Ipsos poll from Oct. 21-27 both showed Peters ahead by 6 points.
James has been bolstered by a multi-million-dollar advertising campaign from the Senate Leadership Fund, a Republican super PAC allied with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnellAddison (Mitch) Mitchell McConnellMcConnell: Battle for Senate ‘a 50-50 proposition”Packing’ federal courts is already a serious problemWhat a Biden administration should look likeMORE (R-Ky.).
Democrats in Washington have also pumped money into the contest.
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates the Michigan Senate race Lean Democratic.
For the Minnesota race, Cook rates it as Solid Democratic.
But for Thune, the Minnesota race is a sleeper thats ripe for a GOP upset.
I think that people are looking at the security issues if you live in the Minneapolis-St. Paul suburbs, he said, referring to the belief among Republicans that Trumps law-and-order message will play well with suburban voters concerned about the rioting and looting in the city after the police killing of George Floyd, a Black man, in late May.
You get to the rural areas and its real strong for the Republicans, Thune added. Theres always going to be a couple of surprises election night.
Minnesota is more of a reach for Republicans, but the race between Smith and Republican Jason LewisJason Mark LewisThe Hill’s Morning Report – Sponsored by Facebook – Justice Barrett joins court; one week until Election DayThe Hill’s Campaign Report: Trump, Biden prepare to make final pitches to voters Minnesota Senate candidate Jason Lewis undergoes ‘successful’ hernia surgeryMORE got fresh attention after a KSTP-SurveyUSA poll last week showed a statistical tie between the two candidates, at 43 percent and 42 percent, respectively.
The race is tightening in Minnesota. Its close, but the Democrats are probably ahead, said Vin Weber, a Republican strategist and former member of Congress from Minnesota who suggested Lewiss focus on crime in Minneapolis is getting traction with voters.
Senate Democratic strategists, however, argue that Republican-allied groups havent spent significant amounts of money in their effort to defeat Smith.
Paul Goren, a professor of political science at the University of Minnesota, said that while the KSTP-SurveyUSA polls methodology is sound, its an outlier compared to other surveys that show Smith with bigger leads.
I think Smith is still in the drivers seat and should feel cautiously optimistic about the outcome, but its by no means a guarantee or a sure thing, he said.
One Senate Democratic strategist pushed back hard on Republican hopes for an upset victory in the Michigan or Minnesota Senate races, noting that Trump is widely expected to lose both states.
In other parts of the country, Thune said he has been reassured by some traditionally Republican states starting to perform more along the lines of what GOP senators expected at the start of the 2020 election cycle. 
Some of these states have started to right themselves. Montana, for example, I feel really good about. The Daines campaign is there, he said referring to Sen. Steve DainesSteven (Steve) David DainesDemocrat trails by 3 points in Montana Senate race: pollPoll shows statistical tie in Montana Senate racePower players play chess match on COVID-19 aidMORE (R-Mont.), who has a 3-point lead over Gov. Steve BullockSteve BullockInterior says Pendley to remain at BLM despite ‘dramatic tweets’ from DemocratsDemocrat trails by 3 points in Montana Senate race: pollPoll shows statistical tie in Montana Senate raceMORE (D) in a recent New York Times/Siena College poll.
The numbers have started to strengthen and improve with some of our incumbents, Thune added.
One of those GOP incumbents is Sen. John CornynJohn CornynCook moves Texas to ‘toss-up’Biden pushes into Trump territoryCruz: Hunter Biden attacks don’t move ‘a single voter’MORE of Texas. A New York Times/Siena College poll conducted Oct. 20-25 showed him leading Democratic challenger M.J. Hegar by 10 points.
Republicans also think they have a better chance of keeping Sen. Thom TillisThomas (Thom) Roland TillisLate donor surges push election spending projections to new heightsPence seeks to lift GOP in battle for SenateNearly 47 percent of all North Carolina registered voters have already cast their ballotsMOREs (R) seat in North Carolina after Democratic challenger Cal Cunningham publicly apologized to his wife for having an affair during the campaign.
Democrats counter that Cunningham has managed to hold onto his lead in the polls.
Thune also sounded a note of optimism with Sen. Susan CollinsSusan Margaret CollinsGideon holds 3-point lead over Collins in new pollThe Hill’s 12:30 Report – Presented by Facebook – One week out, where the Trump, Biden race standsThe Hill’s Morning Report – Sponsored by Facebook – Justice Barrett joins court; one week until Election DayMORE of Maine, one of the most vulnerable GOP senators.
Susan Collins is going to run a long ways ahead of the presidential ballot in Maine. She may be able to get enough distance and space between herself and [Trump,] Thune said.
A second Republican senator who requested anonymity to discuss views within the Senate GOP caucus of keeping their majority said he and many of his colleagues remain hopeful because experts and pollsters widely predicted Trumps defeat in 2016 and were wrong. 
I was so certain that Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonHillary Clinton responds to Chrissy Teigen tweet: ‘I love you back’Trump fights for battleground ArizonaBiden leads Trump by 12 in new national pollMORE was going to win that Im just not that willing to be certain anymore, said the GOP lawmaker.
Stewart Boss, a spokesman for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, dismissed the Republican optimism.
Republicans are scrambling days before the election because theyre currently playing defense in more than a dozen competitive Senate seats, but that doesnt change the facts about where these races stand in the final stretch, he said.